2024 Eastern Conference Playoff Predictions
Now That We Know Who's In, Who's Moving On?
Well, we didn’t do too well with our preseason predictions (more on this in a later post).
Let’s see what we can do with the playoffs. It’s got to be easier, right?
As the playoff picture has been finalized in the East but we still have to wait for a few games tonight before we know how the West will turn out we’ll do this in two parts.
Round 1:
Rangers vs. Capitals
Alexander: Can I pick the Rangers in 3? I’m not sure there’s going to be anyone outside the D.C. area that picks the Capitals to beat the Rangers. The Rangers won the President’s Trophy, dominating the Metropolitan division for most of the year. The Capitals squeaked into the playoffs with the worst goal differential of any playoff team in the salary cap era. The Caps win close games and get blown out when they lose. Although there’s certainly an element of skill and clutch ability in winning close games, it also comes down to a lot of luck. The Rangers certainly have their flaws as a team that gets a lot of its work done on the powerplay (penalties tend to get called less in the playoffs), but against the Capitals it shouldn’t be an issue. Rangers in 4.
Phil: From a statistical standpoint the Rangers dominate the Capitals. New York’s goaltending, 5 on 5 play, Power Play, and Penalty Kill are better than the Cap’s. Any games that get into OT also favor the Rangers based on regular season records (8-1 vs 4-6). The only thing the Caps seem to have going for them is a 3-game winning streak to sneak them into the playoffs. If the Rangers have a concern, it’s that they won the Presidents Trophy. Ya I know that should be a good thing, but the President’s Trophy winner has only won the Stanley Cup 8 times in 36 years and have gone out in the first or second round in each of the last 8 seasons. Given the imbalance between the Rangers and the Capitals though I’m inclined to say they’ll make it through round one. After that…
Prediction: Consensus Pick - Rangers
Panthers vs. Lightning
Alexander: The battle of Florida is one of the toughest matchups to call this year. A month ago, I would’ve bet on the Panthers to crush Tampa. 2 weeks ago, I probably would’ve gone with the Lightning. Today…. it’s anyone’s best guess. Both teams have experience with deep playoff runs and goalies that have shown they can perform well in challenging spots. The Lightning have the Art Ross winner and an MVP candidate in Nikita Kucherov. The Panthers have the likely Selke winner in Barkov. Both teams have incredible defence cores that can move the puck and shut you down. My head is telling me the Panthers, but my gut is telling me the Lightning. This series is going 7, but who’s going to win? Gun to my head, I’m betting on the Panthers as the more complete team to get the win.
Phil: Well, we disagree on how competitive this will be. Florida’s goaltending is head-and-shoulders above that of TB, at least statistically speaking. Florida is also more dominant 5 on 5 if you look at the stats. Tampa however does have the better specialty teams and the Panthers took more penalties than any other team in the league this year. If that pattern continues and Florida finds itself in the box frequently then TB has a real shot. However, the “let them play” mentality of many referees in the playoffs means my money is on the Panthers making it through to round 2.
Prediction: Consensus Pick - Panthers
Hurricanes vs. Islanders
Alexander: A rematch from last year’s first round, and I’m not sure I expect a different outcome. The Islanders come into the playoffs on a hot streak, beating their competition to claim the third spot in the Metro Division. That would mean something to me if they weren’t playing another one of the hottest teams in the league going into the playoffs in the Hurricanes. After a slow start to the years, the Canes have been holding pace with the Rangers, and if the season went 10 games longer, they might’ve passed them. The Hurricanes are one of the most balanced teams in the league and I don’t think the Islanders have the star power to compete. The one advantage the Islanders have is in goal, but Sorokin hasn’t been at his best this year. Hurricanes in 5.
Phil: A rematch of one of last year’s first round series looks to be our first tough call. Or at least tougher than the last two matchups. Goaltending is very close. The Hurricanes have a better GAA, but the Isles have a (slightly) better Save Percentage. Throw in the 5v5 stats though and I’m going to give the edge to Carolina. Specialty teams are a different story. The Islanders have the worst PK in the league and their PP is over 7% lower than Carolina’s (who had the league best PK). My advice to the Isles is “stay out of the box!” The Islanders have more OT experience but since most of it is bad that doesn’t help them. The biggest thing the Isles seem to have going for them is…They. Are. Hot! 8-1-1 over the last 10. Can they take this into the playoffs? Hard to say and even if they do, Carolina was 7-3 over the last ten which is also pretty good. Unless the Isles’ goaltending stands on its head this round goes to Carolina.
Prediction: Consensus Pick - Hurricanes
Bruins vs. Maple Leafs
Alexander: Here we go again. The Leafs will try to crush the demons of the past by defeating the big bad Bruins. That said, the Leafs and Bruins of 2024 are barely recognizable from their last matchup in 2019. These are different teams and as much as history might matter to fans, it shouldn’t affect the players. Toronto is known for choking in the playoffs, but the Bruins are underrated in that matter. I’ve never seen a team get a pass for blowing it the playoffs more than the Bruins last year when they were the best regular season team of all time. This year they’re a great regular season team again, but their roster is worse. I’ve been saying the Bruins are frauds all year and it’s time I put my money where my mouth is. Leafs in 7.
Phil: Boston vs Toronto. Again. The dream/nightmare matchup. Have Leaf fans started waking up in the middle of the night with cold sweats yet? Has the horror of the 2013 first-round collapse faded yet? Has last year’s round one victory, the first in since 2004, exorcised all the Leafs’ demons? Say what you want, but if Boston gets in Toronto’s head the Leafs are doomed. What do the stats tell us though?
The two team match up well 5 on 5 but I’m giving it to Boston based on their goaltending (.898 team save percentage Toronto?!?). Give the specialty team edge to Boston as well. Throw in that Boston took all four regular season game, and I don’t see the Leafs winning another playoff round this year.
Prediction: Alexander – Leafs; Phil - Bruins
Round 2:
Alexander: Panthers vs. Leafs
A rematch of last year’s second-round matchup. This time though the Panthers are the favourites. While I think the Leafs can get passed the Bruins, I think they’ll struggle against a more complete Panthers team. The Leafs have shaky goaltending at best, and the worst lineup they’ve iced since early in the Matthews era. I think the Leafs run ends in the round 2 once again. Panthers in 6.
Phil: Panthers vs. Bruins
There’s not a lot separating these two teams. Florida is slightly better both from a goaltending standpoint and 5 on 5 performance. Special teams are also almost as close as you can get. Florida does have the better OT record but lost all 4 matchups to Boston this year. Playoff experience is tough to gauge as well. Boston has made the playoffs 8 years in a row compared to Florida’s 5 but over the last 3 years Boston has a .480 winning percentage, winning only 1 of 4 series while the Panthers have a .514 winning percentage, have won 4 out of 7 series and made it to the Cup last year. Florida wins this matchup based on their recent playoff experience.
Prediction: We had Florida facing different opponents but, in the end, it doesn’t matter, Consensus Pick - Panthers
Rangers vs. Hurricanes
Alexander: These two teams have been fighting tooth and nail for the better part of two months for the top spot in the Metropolitan Division. The Rangers come out on top, but mostly because they performed better early in the season. These have been two of the best teams in the NHL since the new year and it should be an exciting matchup. That said, I’m giving the edge to the Hurricanes. I think they have a more balanced team that performs better at 5 on 5. They have weaker goaltending, but it’s not a hinderance by any means. The Rangers are too reliant on the powerplay, and it’ll come back to bite them here. Hurricanes in 7.
Phil: I agree that this looks to be a very tight series. Team goaltending and is very close, but Carolina has a slight edge. Carolina is also the better team 5 on 5 and has the better specialty teams, although it’s close once again. Regular season OT records favor the Rangers, but will that decide the series? I’m betting no. After examining the stats, I lean towards Carolina and once you take the President’s Trophy jinx into account it looks to me like Carolina will advance to the Conference Finals.
Prediction: Consensus Pick - Hurricanes
Round 3:
Panthers vs. Hurricanes
Alexander: If I’m right, we’ll have a rematch of last year’s Eastern Conference Finals. This time though, the Hurricanes won’t be taken by surprise. The Panthers relied on late game heroics to steal games away last year, and I think they’ve used up their luck. The Hurricanes have been knocking on the door for years, and I think they finally get over the hump and into the Stanley Cup Final. Hurricanes in 7.
Phil: Florida has the better team goaltending and is the better 5 on 5 team. Carolina wins the specialty team battle and has the better OT record. If Florida loses its head and spends too much time in the box, they’ll pay for it and Carolina will advance. However, I’m going to bet the refs put their whistles away (mostly) and that Florida, having just missed out on the Cup last year, will find a way to beat Carolina again this year and return to the Cup.
Prediction: Alexander – Hurricanes; Phil - Panthers
Summary
Alexander’s Picks
Round 1
o Rangers over Capitals
o Panthers over Lightning
o Hurricanes over Islanders
o Leafs over Bruins
Round 2
o Panthers over Leafs
o Hurricanes over Rangers
Round 3
o Hurricanes over Panthers
Phil’s Picks
Round 1
o Rangers over Capitals
o Panthers over Lightning
o Hurricanes over Islanders
o Bruins over Leafs
Round 2
o Panthers over Bruins
o Hurricanes over Rangers
Round 3
o Panthers over Hurricanes
Conclusion
There you have it. A few disagreements, the most important being who will make it to the Cup. I think the two series we disagree on will be very close. Hopefully we do a better job here than we did with the pre-season predictions. Part II will look at the West and include our Stanley Cup pick. It will come out in a day or two so keep your eyes open.